Solving murders and non-fatal shootings

HOW TO IMPROVE ACCOUNTABILITY AND COMMUNITY TRUST IN THE CITY OF CHICAGO

 

What ARE Clearance RatES?

When a homicide is solved, police refer to the case as “cleared” and the rate at which police departments clear cases (especially homicides) are commonly used as a metric of their performance. Clearance rates are calculated as the number of incidents cleared either by arrest or through “exceptional means” divided by the number of incidents committed in a given year. The Chicago Police Department relies on the FBI’s formula for calculating clearance rates as the number of homicide cases solved (regardless of the year the incident occurred) divided by the number of homicides committed in a given year.

In 2020, CPD cleared 354 homicides and the city saw 774 incidents of homicide resulting in a 45% clearance rate. Almost a fifth of the cases contributing to the clearance rate in 2020 took place prior to 2016. In 2021 the homicide total count was 800— in the same year, the homicide clearance rate by prosecution was 21.7% in predominantly Black neighborhoods and 45.6% in predominantly White neighborhoods. This suggests that offenders committing homicides in White neighborhoods are twice as likely to be identified as offenders committing murders in predominantly Black neighborhoods. Unsolved homicides and non-fatal shootings perpetuate a cycle of retributive violence and contribute to feelings of mistrust towards law enforcement. 

 

Why are Clearances Declining?

There are several reasons clearance rates are on the decline not just in Chicago but throughout America. Some of the most concerning reasons are unrelated to the difficulty of a case or higher scrutiny from prosecutors:

  1. It’s estimated that 50% of homicides were committed by guns in the 1960s and today the national average is 80%. In Chicago, over 90% of homicides in Chicago are the result of gun fatalities which are harder to solve. LiveFree is working to address gun violence and the accessibility of illegal guns by advocating for an Office of Gun Violence Prevention.

  2. Racism and frequent incidents of police brutality reinforce mistrust and fear of cooperating with law enforcement.

  3. Detectives claim to be overextended with their caseloads but fail to apply recommendations that might improve case management and organization.

There are immediate changes that could be made and continue to go ignored.

WHY DOES SOLVING MURDERS MATTEr?

  • The presence of unsolved shootings amplifies gun violence in high risk communities by sending the message that community safety is not a priority.

  • Lack of accountability, diminishes order, amplifies crime, and rejects basic human rights.

  • Solving murders is ultimately about safety, accountability, and transparency for community.

    WHILE MURDERS CONTINUES TO GO UNSOLVED, BLACK & BROWN COMMUNITIES ARE AT AN INTERSECTION OF BEING BOTH OVER-POLICED AND UNDER-PROTECTED.

 

Nonfatal Shootings iN Chicago

The green line represents the number of incomplete murders that have been cleared by an arrest.

The blue line represents incomplete murders that have been cleared by approval of the States Attorneys office which is consistently lower than those by arrest.

 

Since 2019, non-fatal shootings (also known as incomplete homicides) have increased while the clearance rate for incomplete homicides has decreased.

This leaves survivors and their families without answers and perpetuates a cycle of retributive violence that disproportionately impacts Black communities and is hard to interrupt.

 

Image of protesters

Violence and Policing in Chicago

2021 was one of the most violent years in recent Chicago history. While the number of homicides is currently down overall from 2021, 2022 is still among the most violent in the past 10 years. So far this year, there has been a 55% increase in the number of women killed.

Black and Brown neighborhoods are being over-policed and under-protected.

Low clearance rates among cases involving victims in predominantly Black neighborhoods are possibly due to disproportionately high rates of homicides and non-fatal shootings in these areas. Nonetheless, the disparity in the volume of murders experienced in predominantly Black communities cannot be used as an excuse to allow these violent crimes to go unsolved.

Live free illinois core message

Despite its enormous $1.7B budget CPD has the lowest clearance rates in the country. CPD personnel have decreased by 5% over the last 5 years, less than 50% of homicides and 85-90% of non-fatal shootings go unsolved, yet the department’s annual budget continues to increase.

Improving clearance rates will improve public safety and reduce violence in Chicago. Clearance rates, or the percentage of crimes actually solved by the police, are a critical way to evaluate department effectiveness and ensure police accountability and community trust.

Black and Brown Chicagoans disproportionately suffer the consequences of violence in the city, and yet, clearance rates in their neighborhoods are less than half of clearance rates in predominantly white communities. In 2021, the homicide clearance rate via prosecution in predominantly white communities was 45.6%, roughly the 2020 national clearance rate. In Latino communities, it was 25.2% and only 21.7% in predominantly Black communities.

CPD should be held accountable for its low clearance rates. If data suggested a government program was inefficient, officials would rightly reform the program to ensure taxpayer dollars are being well spent and the community is being served. Similarly, it is reasonable to use clearance rates to determine whether CPD is keeping the community safe, and what can be done to improve their effectiveness.

 

Bureau of Justice Assistance Report

After a decade of declining clearance rates, CPD was given 89 recommendations to improve. The 2019 recommendations from the Police Executive Research Forum (PERF) and Bureau of Justice Assistance (BJA) at the U.S. Department of Justice came after a long, thorough review of CPD’s homicide investigation practices with an eye toward improving clearance rates and accountability.

The recommendations made to improve clearance rates and accountability were wide-ranging and important. The PERF and BJA report encompassed action items related to how CPD is set up, how it manages and tracks cases, how it conducts investigations and how it hires and trains its detectives and officers.

To get serious about increasing clearance rates, improving accountability and rebuilding trust, CPD must start being transparent about its progress in adhering to the recommendations. The PERF and BJA report was released in 2019, but there have been few details shared publicly since about changes in the department to improve policing and public safety.

 

Our Efforts

1

LIVE FREE Illinois is leading the campaign to improve clearance rates for shootings and homicides in Chicago.

We are engaging key decision makers, stakeholders, and experts who have the institutional power to implement the necessary changes. This includes Chicago’s chief of detectives, deputy mayor of public safety, alderpersons championing violence prevention strategies, and related experts.

2

LIVE FREE Illinois hosted a focus group with the University of Chicago Crime Lab, the former LAPD chief of detectives and the former state’s attorney policy director in which we learned:

  • LAPD is smaller than CPD, but has higher clearance rates.

  • Initiatives to improve clearance rates must include both homicides and shootings and other attempted homicides. They also must include community education about what the data means.

  • Chicago needs to improve its witness protection program.

3

In the long term, LIVE FREE Illinois plans to:

  • Develop a set of recommendations informed by the community that will hold the Chicago Police Department and City Council accountable for increasing clearance rates.

  • Develop a community-led direct action campaign to ensure action is taken.

  • Develop a social media campaign to educate community members and stakeholders on the importance of clearance rates in fostering police accountability.

 

Hiring More police is not the answer

Adding more police does not equate to keeping communities safe. Too often traditional policing tactics lead to increased arrests with harsh and punitive outcomes for Black and Brown people.

Improving Clearance rates is not about over-policing or increased sentencing but about commitment to investing in communities.

Encouraging prevention strategies like Fund Peace, we can help assist, build capacity, or sustain proven models of violence interruption.

 

SOLVING MURDERS ENSURES THAT CRIMES WILL NOT GO UNSOLVED WITHOUT IMPUNITY AND ULTIMATELY, UPLIFT PUBLIC SAFETY.

 

Data Sources:

In response to LFI’s FOIA request for homicide clearance data, CPD supplied the case status and demographics data on homicides that occurred between 2019-2021 or were cleared between 2019-2021 and all non-fatal shooting incidents that occurred or were cleared during the same time span. Additionally, we rely the City of Chicago’s open data portal for data on victim characteristics and arrests.

References:

  1. https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2017/crime-in-the-u.s.-2017/topic-pages/clearances

  2. https://www.civicfed.org/blog/city-chicago-public-safety-spending

  3. https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/07/police-murder-clearance-rate/661500/